Indicative Votes again
Another day and another wait to see what the MPs in the UK parliament decide to waste time on.
Cynical I know as I am sure that many think what they are doing is very important - I am sure even they think they are doing something very important!
In fact they aren't this is one long dog and pony show by a political class who want to do anything except make decisions.
This is based on a few basic facts.
The withdrawal agreement treaty (WA) is legally binding it sets out any money owed, citizens rights and also how the UK can expect to be treated over the next two or more years of the transition whilst also setting out the dreaded backstop for the UK as a whole but especially for Northern Ireland (NI). This compares to the political declaration (PD) which is not legally binding and can't be due to the way that EU law works. No deal about the future can be agreed until the member has left the union.
So what does that mean in reality?
The WA treaty if passed will become law and will have the ability where UK and EU law collides to overrule our domestic law. This is required because it is possible as new laws and regulations are created by the EU especially due to the length of the transition there may be collisions. But the PD is a vague shopping list of what the UK and the EU would like out of the forward negotiation it is not legally binding, will not be turned into a treaty and frankly is for the most part slightly better than jotting some ideas down on the back of a fag packet down the pub with your mates (I am being slightly tongue and cheek here).
So how does that relate to now?
Well you may have watched the many interviews where MP's complain about a blind Brexit or that they don't know what the end result will be. This actually fails to take into account that the very nature of Article 50 doesn't allow anyone to know, that is the process that John Kerr has bequeathed us - Thanks John! Yes the PD mentions building on the custom union and this refers back to the WA (so some connection) but for the most part it means little especially in light of the exchange letters between Tusk / Juncker and May some months back which clearly stated that any forward negotiation wouldn't necessarily need to conclude there. That obviously doesn't take into account NI which is very different and perhaps will be discussed in greater length elsewhere.
So swinging back to parliament you can begin to see that all those efforts they are putting in are essentially a waste of time. It could perhaps lead to a change in the PD which I am sure that the EU would welcome but can't fix what Brexit would look like as the PD is a moving target and is not legally binding as discussed.
This becomes very important when you move onto the UK domestic situation.
Currently the Her Majesties government (HMG) as formed by the Conservative party is falling to pieces. To date cabinet responsibility, party discipline and even by all accounts basic communication has broken down. You can't turn a TV or radio on or read a newspaper or social media and not see some Tory on Tory action - they literally hate each other. Which after watching the behavior of all sides over the last two years I am not surprised by!
So the idea that this government will make it to 2022 and partially - just partially (negotiations could run for a few years beyond 2022) deliver the negotiations for something like a Customs Union or Single Market is at best deluded and at worst detached from reality. Now remember that Tory members and voters are 70 - 80% leavers depending upon the polls and they want a clean break. This is relevant when you look at the deselection efforts that are kicking off in some Tory seats currently which I believe will accelerate if the government does move towards any of the above end points. They will be a running barometer of anger in the ranks along with the hemorrhaging membership figures and the more Conservative HQ attempts to stamp on them the more anger it will generate.
So what does that mean?
On this basis it is highly likely the government will fall. At which stage Labour could attempt to cobble together a coalition of various parties + rogue Conservative MP's all supporting a minority Labour government as it attempts to deliver a partial negotiation. The open question being could it find any partners as all other parties are pro EU and I can't see any supporting even a softer Brexit outcome. But beyond that it may also find that its own minority Leave MP's or even more likely majority Remain MP's would attempt to sabotage the talks and government business. This would also be set against the fact that those same coalition parties and MP's would probably either refuse to support or even actively sabotage Labours other policy objectives. Labour would also find itself leaking support to both pro Remain and pro Leave minority parties at the same which would create pressure to break one way or other.
Stable government this would not be.
So the realistic outcome in the near future - anytime from now through to the summer is an election. At this stage of the discussion there will be many who will worry about the deadline imposed by the EU. You can safely ignore this there is near zero chance they will push the UK out when the Eurozone economy is sliding rapidly into a recession - no government leader will want that responsibility on their head! The election may take some time to get to but it is where I think we will end up as it is the only method to maybe bring discipline back to the parties and parliament.
So briefly returning to our dog and pony show which is the UK parliament you can begin to see that whatever they decide, not only is it non binding but this parliament and especially this government will not be around to try and even implement it. That means that whoever comes next - whatever the government - regardless of whether the WA is passed or not will in all likelihood just throw it overboard and make their own decisions for the future.
Yes it is that much of a waste of time.
Cynical I know as I am sure that many think what they are doing is very important - I am sure even they think they are doing something very important!
In fact they aren't this is one long dog and pony show by a political class who want to do anything except make decisions.
This is based on a few basic facts.
The withdrawal agreement treaty (WA) is legally binding it sets out any money owed, citizens rights and also how the UK can expect to be treated over the next two or more years of the transition whilst also setting out the dreaded backstop for the UK as a whole but especially for Northern Ireland (NI). This compares to the political declaration (PD) which is not legally binding and can't be due to the way that EU law works. No deal about the future can be agreed until the member has left the union.
So what does that mean in reality?
The WA treaty if passed will become law and will have the ability where UK and EU law collides to overrule our domestic law. This is required because it is possible as new laws and regulations are created by the EU especially due to the length of the transition there may be collisions. But the PD is a vague shopping list of what the UK and the EU would like out of the forward negotiation it is not legally binding, will not be turned into a treaty and frankly is for the most part slightly better than jotting some ideas down on the back of a fag packet down the pub with your mates (I am being slightly tongue and cheek here).
So how does that relate to now?
Well you may have watched the many interviews where MP's complain about a blind Brexit or that they don't know what the end result will be. This actually fails to take into account that the very nature of Article 50 doesn't allow anyone to know, that is the process that John Kerr has bequeathed us - Thanks John! Yes the PD mentions building on the custom union and this refers back to the WA (so some connection) but for the most part it means little especially in light of the exchange letters between Tusk / Juncker and May some months back which clearly stated that any forward negotiation wouldn't necessarily need to conclude there. That obviously doesn't take into account NI which is very different and perhaps will be discussed in greater length elsewhere.
So swinging back to parliament you can begin to see that all those efforts they are putting in are essentially a waste of time. It could perhaps lead to a change in the PD which I am sure that the EU would welcome but can't fix what Brexit would look like as the PD is a moving target and is not legally binding as discussed.
This becomes very important when you move onto the UK domestic situation.
Currently the Her Majesties government (HMG) as formed by the Conservative party is falling to pieces. To date cabinet responsibility, party discipline and even by all accounts basic communication has broken down. You can't turn a TV or radio on or read a newspaper or social media and not see some Tory on Tory action - they literally hate each other. Which after watching the behavior of all sides over the last two years I am not surprised by!
So the idea that this government will make it to 2022 and partially - just partially (negotiations could run for a few years beyond 2022) deliver the negotiations for something like a Customs Union or Single Market is at best deluded and at worst detached from reality. Now remember that Tory members and voters are 70 - 80% leavers depending upon the polls and they want a clean break. This is relevant when you look at the deselection efforts that are kicking off in some Tory seats currently which I believe will accelerate if the government does move towards any of the above end points. They will be a running barometer of anger in the ranks along with the hemorrhaging membership figures and the more Conservative HQ attempts to stamp on them the more anger it will generate.
So what does that mean?
On this basis it is highly likely the government will fall. At which stage Labour could attempt to cobble together a coalition of various parties + rogue Conservative MP's all supporting a minority Labour government as it attempts to deliver a partial negotiation. The open question being could it find any partners as all other parties are pro EU and I can't see any supporting even a softer Brexit outcome. But beyond that it may also find that its own minority Leave MP's or even more likely majority Remain MP's would attempt to sabotage the talks and government business. This would also be set against the fact that those same coalition parties and MP's would probably either refuse to support or even actively sabotage Labours other policy objectives. Labour would also find itself leaking support to both pro Remain and pro Leave minority parties at the same which would create pressure to break one way or other.
Stable government this would not be.
So the realistic outcome in the near future - anytime from now through to the summer is an election. At this stage of the discussion there will be many who will worry about the deadline imposed by the EU. You can safely ignore this there is near zero chance they will push the UK out when the Eurozone economy is sliding rapidly into a recession - no government leader will want that responsibility on their head! The election may take some time to get to but it is where I think we will end up as it is the only method to maybe bring discipline back to the parties and parliament.
So briefly returning to our dog and pony show which is the UK parliament you can begin to see that whatever they decide, not only is it non binding but this parliament and especially this government will not be around to try and even implement it. That means that whoever comes next - whatever the government - regardless of whether the WA is passed or not will in all likelihood just throw it overboard and make their own decisions for the future.
Yes it is that much of a waste of time.
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