The Coronavirus
Introduction
The news is full of information on the Corona virus but I am finding it largely useless. It is neither detailed or up to date enough to be helpful. I am not a virus or healthcare professional but I wanted to write down what I have been able to learn from reading and listening to others. My information is very top line and is about answering some basic questions. I strongly recommend those who are interested do their own research. Before I dive in, it is worth noting that the data from China should be treated with caution. The CCP historically has been very bad at providing honest data.
What is the Coronavirus?
The Coronavirus is a family of viruses which are found to be a cause of serious diseases in animals globally. Some of these have jumped the species barrier to become contagious for humans. This includes SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) which originated in China in 2003 and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012. The current crisis is centred on a new strain called Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Where did it emerge?
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in the city of Wuhan in China. The Chinese government thinks that it may have started spreading via a seafood market which was also illegally trading in wild animals including snakes, bats, marmots, birds and rabbits. A study from the Wuhan Institute of Virology shows that the current strain is 96% the same as the one found in bats. But there is some evidence that the virus may well have emerged earlier.
How contagious is it?
How quickly a virus spreads is called its transmission rate i.e how easily the virus can hop from one host (person) to another. Each virus is given by scientists a basic reproduction number or R0 number which is how many people one person is likely to infect. The higher the R0 rating the quicker the virus will spread through the population. To give you some idea polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values between 5 and 7 - meaning each person is likely to infect between 5 - 7 people. Chinese officials have said that the Coronavirus is betwen R2 - 3 whereas the World Health Organisation (WHO) has ranked it at between R1.4 - 2.5 but others are ranking it at R3.5 or above.
Why does that matter?
Officially as of Saturday 1st February approximately 12,000 people worldwide have been infected. At the mid point WHO R0 of R2 the virus could within 10 hops infect 24.5 million people, at the mid range of the Chinese one which is R2.5 it could infect just under 191 million and with the highest of R3.5 that could be 4.6 billion. Little numbers can make a big difference when you get into statistics and growth rates, It is worth noting these are possible infection rates are preclude any measures taken.
What is the fatality rate?
The fatality rate is how many people are likely to die from the virus. This is calculated by dividing the amount of deaths by the total number of infections. Currently there have been 12000 infections and 259 deaths worldwide which top line means a fatality rate of 2.09%. But this could be wrong as depends upon the incubation period of the virus which is the time between when someone first contracts the virus and finally starts showing symptoms. This is currently unknown but it is thought to be between 2 - 14 days. If we take a mid point then those dying now were infected 7 days ago. At that time there were thought to be about 2000 people infected which would mean a fatality rate of 12.85%.
Who is most affected?
The vast majority appear to get limited symptoms including shortness of breath, fever, headache, cough and a general feeling of being unwell. In short it is very similar to the common flu that most people normally get at least once over their lifetime. The most affected can develop more complicated breathing problems including pneumonia. Those most affected are the old and people with pre-existing conditions which make them susceptible to getting ill. Deaths have been mostly clustered in the 50+ though there have been reports of outliers. If this is the case then the fatality rate for 50+ will be multiple times higher than the headline fatality rate for the virus.
Why are people worried about complications rates?
The complication rate is the number of people who develop the disease who need to be admitted to hospital for additional treatment but still recover. This number is normally very small but becomes critical as a virus spreads. If this number is high then the numbers being admitted can soon overwhelm health care systems. England for example has just over 6000 ICU beds against a population of 56 million. Most of those beds are permanently in use with the normal car accidents, heart patients etc. A small rise in those with Coronavirus complications would see us running out of space. This would increase the total fatalities from the virus but also from other unrelated patients who would be unable to access ICU treatment.
What are authorities trying to do to stop the virus?
There are three possible tracks to deal with any disease outbreak and they are run in parallel.
Containment - Authorities will attempt to contain the spread of the virus by isolating people and areas. Within China this has meant putting entire cities in lock down and stopping travel. Outside of China this has meant finding anyone who has travelled to the infected areas and isolating them. The objective is to stop further transmission whilst allowing the disease to burn out i.e. run its course through the entire accessible population.
Slowing the spread - If containment fails the objective is to slow the spread of the disease. This is done to both buy time for other solutions inc testing kits and vaccines but also to reduce the impact on healthcare systems and stop them becoming overwhelmed
Testing and vaccines - A new testing kit has been developed which should help authorities to test and isolate the infected. Efforts to create a vaccine are underway and with global resources being pumped into the problem we can hope that one is advanced quickly but it is a slow process.
There are reports of Asymptomatic transmission - what is that and why is everyone worried?
Asymptomatic transmission means that the virus is capable of jumping from one person to the next even if the original person is not showing any symptoms. A person may not realise they are infected and continue to interact with others before showing signs of illness. If true this is a huge issue especially in these early stages when containment is still the most important method of stopping the spread. It hugely complicates the task of isolating the infected. With a testing kit this should become less of an issue but there will never be enough kits to test everyone immediately.
Why is no one immune?
There are probably a few people who are naturally immune but it is likely to be a small percentage. For the most part the virus has jumped into a new host i.e. humans which is totally new and so has no immunity. As more people are infected and recover herd immunity will build up i.e. those previously infected will already have the antibodies in their system if they come into contact with the virus again. This build up takes time and is based on people becoming infected.
Is the virus mutating?
The Coronavirus is an RNA virus which means it has the capacity to mutate extremely rapidly. This is expected and it should not be a source of panic. We can hope that as the virus infects more people it will mutate in a good way - perhaps becoming less aggressive. From a virus perspective this would make sense as the strain that kills less will spread the furthest. There is no way of knowing though and it could mutate in unhelpful ways.
So what should you do?
Listen to your healthcare authorities who are best placed to advise whilst tracking things yourself. Do not panic - the world is not coming to an end though we all need to be personally aware. People are already working on the solutions and we are lucky to have modern science / medicine. If things do progress further it might be worth considering buying some extra food, water and medicine for at home so should you catch the virus you don't need to go out and interact with others.
The news is full of information on the Corona virus but I am finding it largely useless. It is neither detailed or up to date enough to be helpful. I am not a virus or healthcare professional but I wanted to write down what I have been able to learn from reading and listening to others. My information is very top line and is about answering some basic questions. I strongly recommend those who are interested do their own research. Before I dive in, it is worth noting that the data from China should be treated with caution. The CCP historically has been very bad at providing honest data.
What is the Coronavirus?
The Coronavirus is a family of viruses which are found to be a cause of serious diseases in animals globally. Some of these have jumped the species barrier to become contagious for humans. This includes SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) which originated in China in 2003 and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012. The current crisis is centred on a new strain called Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Where did it emerge?
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV emerged in the city of Wuhan in China. The Chinese government thinks that it may have started spreading via a seafood market which was also illegally trading in wild animals including snakes, bats, marmots, birds and rabbits. A study from the Wuhan Institute of Virology shows that the current strain is 96% the same as the one found in bats. But there is some evidence that the virus may well have emerged earlier.
How contagious is it?
How quickly a virus spreads is called its transmission rate i.e how easily the virus can hop from one host (person) to another. Each virus is given by scientists a basic reproduction number or R0 number which is how many people one person is likely to infect. The higher the R0 rating the quicker the virus will spread through the population. To give you some idea polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values between 5 and 7 - meaning each person is likely to infect between 5 - 7 people. Chinese officials have said that the Coronavirus is betwen R2 - 3 whereas the World Health Organisation (WHO) has ranked it at between R1.4 - 2.5 but others are ranking it at R3.5 or above.
Why does that matter?
Officially as of Saturday 1st February approximately 12,000 people worldwide have been infected. At the mid point WHO R0 of R2 the virus could within 10 hops infect 24.5 million people, at the mid range of the Chinese one which is R2.5 it could infect just under 191 million and with the highest of R3.5 that could be 4.6 billion. Little numbers can make a big difference when you get into statistics and growth rates, It is worth noting these are possible infection rates are preclude any measures taken.
What is the fatality rate?
The fatality rate is how many people are likely to die from the virus. This is calculated by dividing the amount of deaths by the total number of infections. Currently there have been 12000 infections and 259 deaths worldwide which top line means a fatality rate of 2.09%. But this could be wrong as depends upon the incubation period of the virus which is the time between when someone first contracts the virus and finally starts showing symptoms. This is currently unknown but it is thought to be between 2 - 14 days. If we take a mid point then those dying now were infected 7 days ago. At that time there were thought to be about 2000 people infected which would mean a fatality rate of 12.85%.
Who is most affected?
The vast majority appear to get limited symptoms including shortness of breath, fever, headache, cough and a general feeling of being unwell. In short it is very similar to the common flu that most people normally get at least once over their lifetime. The most affected can develop more complicated breathing problems including pneumonia. Those most affected are the old and people with pre-existing conditions which make them susceptible to getting ill. Deaths have been mostly clustered in the 50+ though there have been reports of outliers. If this is the case then the fatality rate for 50+ will be multiple times higher than the headline fatality rate for the virus.
Why are people worried about complications rates?
The complication rate is the number of people who develop the disease who need to be admitted to hospital for additional treatment but still recover. This number is normally very small but becomes critical as a virus spreads. If this number is high then the numbers being admitted can soon overwhelm health care systems. England for example has just over 6000 ICU beds against a population of 56 million. Most of those beds are permanently in use with the normal car accidents, heart patients etc. A small rise in those with Coronavirus complications would see us running out of space. This would increase the total fatalities from the virus but also from other unrelated patients who would be unable to access ICU treatment.
What are authorities trying to do to stop the virus?
There are three possible tracks to deal with any disease outbreak and they are run in parallel.
Containment - Authorities will attempt to contain the spread of the virus by isolating people and areas. Within China this has meant putting entire cities in lock down and stopping travel. Outside of China this has meant finding anyone who has travelled to the infected areas and isolating them. The objective is to stop further transmission whilst allowing the disease to burn out i.e. run its course through the entire accessible population.
Slowing the spread - If containment fails the objective is to slow the spread of the disease. This is done to both buy time for other solutions inc testing kits and vaccines but also to reduce the impact on healthcare systems and stop them becoming overwhelmed
Testing and vaccines - A new testing kit has been developed which should help authorities to test and isolate the infected. Efforts to create a vaccine are underway and with global resources being pumped into the problem we can hope that one is advanced quickly but it is a slow process.
There are reports of Asymptomatic transmission - what is that and why is everyone worried?
Asymptomatic transmission means that the virus is capable of jumping from one person to the next even if the original person is not showing any symptoms. A person may not realise they are infected and continue to interact with others before showing signs of illness. If true this is a huge issue especially in these early stages when containment is still the most important method of stopping the spread. It hugely complicates the task of isolating the infected. With a testing kit this should become less of an issue but there will never be enough kits to test everyone immediately.
Why is no one immune?
There are probably a few people who are naturally immune but it is likely to be a small percentage. For the most part the virus has jumped into a new host i.e. humans which is totally new and so has no immunity. As more people are infected and recover herd immunity will build up i.e. those previously infected will already have the antibodies in their system if they come into contact with the virus again. This build up takes time and is based on people becoming infected.
Is the virus mutating?
The Coronavirus is an RNA virus which means it has the capacity to mutate extremely rapidly. This is expected and it should not be a source of panic. We can hope that as the virus infects more people it will mutate in a good way - perhaps becoming less aggressive. From a virus perspective this would make sense as the strain that kills less will spread the furthest. There is no way of knowing though and it could mutate in unhelpful ways.
So what should you do?
Listen to your healthcare authorities who are best placed to advise whilst tracking things yourself. Do not panic - the world is not coming to an end though we all need to be personally aware. People are already working on the solutions and we are lucky to have modern science / medicine. If things do progress further it might be worth considering buying some extra food, water and medicine for at home so should you catch the virus you don't need to go out and interact with others.
I have included my references below if you want to review yourself:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html
https://www.sciencealert.com/coronavirus
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-coronavirus
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MacroVoices/~5/jRvhRDou7-g/MacroVoices-2020-01-30-Julian-Brigden-Chris-Martenson.mp3
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.22.914952v1.full.pdf
https://www.livescience.com/how-far-will-coronavirus-spread.html
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1evP0d4RIgE3XsjTzGjuE7sAbNwZS_VuyPtG-TR_qxzY/edit#gid=0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_virus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Comments
Post a Comment