The explosion continues
In 2008 the world economy had a heart attack brought on by the greed and stupidity of elites in the West and beyond. It was a crisis created by rampant globalisation and the interweaving of national financial systems which created a web of complexity which was always going to break at some point.
The reason we got there was because of an ideology going back 30 years or more. But in short it was the belief that money and trade should be let rip because it always leads to the best outcomes. This historically has been proven wrong again and again but people can be remarkably stupid.
Money will always flow to the place where it can get the best return and with free trade this meant that money flowed from the 90s onwards into southeast Asia where wages were cheap and people were plentiful. No one cared what the impact on the West's own population would be - greed and ideology will do that for you.
In this same period you began to see the emergence of an international elite who existed both in national and the new transnational institutions like the EU. People who felt that the world would be better if it ran the way they wanted it to be and for a while it did. But when you shaft enough people you will get a response.
This was the period that saw the large scale de-industrialisation of the West as companies upsticked and moved their factories to southeast Asia - I mean why wouldn’t you. You could pay the staff there $10 a day vs £10 an hour in the West and then ship the goods back as tariffs were so low to be irrelevant when compared to the wage arbitrage.
So what if whole communities were gutted and an entire section of our societies were dumped as being no longer important. They didn’t vote and they were irrelevant to this brave new world where the future was global, house prices only went up and no one needed to make anything because the middle class had their cheap trinkets from abroad. So fuck the social contract and fuck the working class.
Of course a few people did ask how house prices could keep going up - at some point they always become too expensive to buy. Others asked an even more basic question “How could the West keep consuming when it no longer built anything - it is borrowing to consume?”. No one wanted to listen - hush - don’t disturb the party. But this wonderous new world and the new institutions that governed it inevitably hit the wall in the 2008 crisis.
Suddenly the world started melting down - yes house prices did go down - no banks really had lent too much money and yes the financial system was too opaque, interwoven and fragile to survive and “Oh by the way the party is over” was the story from the elites. So the poor got kicked out of their houses and everyone got austerity - it felt sort of right for many people. Like a religious person doing penance to atone for their past sins - people kind of accepted it.
But what they could not accept were the banks and corporations being bailed out and no one going to jail. Suddenly it was socialism for the rich but capitalism for the poor. It spawned the Tea party in the US but more than that it wounded the idea of fairness in the West and forever damaged trust in our elites and institutions - they’ve never recovered.
It might not have mattered had the “recovery” had been strong and fully formed. But governed by elite capture and out of date ideologies for many there has been no recovery. How can there be when none of the underlying issues that drove the crisis have been resolved. The West still doesn’t produce enough, the East doesn’t consume enough and too much money is going to the rich. Sure people have jobs but most are poorer than ever and they have had their public services eviscerated.
If you are rich or own assets though the party has continued. Bull stock markets, surging house prices - the little people might have suffered but you know what “Let them eat cake”. Alongside this elites have paraded around the world telling everyone else what to do and think whilst doing the exact opposite. “The normal rules don’t apply to us they are for the little people” is the silent whisper.
The worst are the transnational elites - people who allegedly represent their countries or other institutions but who have a remarkable ability to turn up in a new job that pays even more than the last regardless of their epic failures. A shameless frenzied feasting on the public purse by an epic list of losers and fraudsters whose appointment the public are never asked about. Their loud squeals heard any time someone attempts to push them away from the trough.
Supporting and abetting this has been a captured media class who have rarely questioned the underlying structures of the world. But then why would they, they are mostly the same. Sure they don’t fly around the world in private jets but many have done well off the system and fight to sustain it. Radical change - oh no we couldn’t possibly do that.
Same people, same thoughts, same education - everything. A borderless liberal class made up of the rich, over-educated academics, journalists, politicians, business class and media luvvies - they mostly huddle together in the global cities like London, Paris and New York or some of the trendy rural retreats handily located nearby. All with sky high property values to keep the plebs away. You wouldn’t want to interact with what you step in.
Their efforts to introduce plurality in public life is always the same - lets have some different coloured faces because that is true diversity. How about we have some people from different social classes and educational backgrounds - you know who might have a different view of things. Naw couldn’t do that they might speak some home truths.
It’s hardly a shock that with all this the public is reacting in country after country. Brexit - Trump "just a cry of nationalism by the normal racists" was heard from the liberal elite in and out of both countries - all backed up by the normal crowd of media and political hucksters. Just an aberration it will go away - lalalalalala - fingers in your ears time.
Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Greece - the list goes on. Country after country popular rage is swelling up. No trend here because people don’t want to see it. If they did they might need to actually engage with the people and their demands.
No instead it’s always the same “You mean they aren’t changing their minds - lets call them stupid ignorant xenophobic rascists”. Sure - that will work because after all this people are going to respond to insults. But then the liberal elite which is doing the screaming can’t help themselves because it is what they actually think. 25 years of a broken social contract and their contempt for much of their own fellow citizens just won’t be silenced.
But you know that works for me, I get to watch with growing delight at their discomfort and this is only just starting. Anyone who thinks that “populism” that wondrous catch all term for those the elites don’t like is peaking is deluded. In many countries the demand to be heard and for change is only just starting. Grab some popcorn there are plenty of elections inbound and any of them could generate new shocks.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in European Union where the treaties create a democratic straight jacket. Want to control migration - nope, want to borrow to invest - nope, want to change your own laws - nope. Nowhere else are elites sticking their fingers in their ears more firmly. They won’t contenance change, hell they won’t even contenance they have a problem. Instead full steam ahead let's talk about more EU - like red rag to a public whose demanding true change.
It wouldn’t be so serious but what little economic recovery we have had since 2008 has been dying for the last 18 months, strangled silently via the Eurodollar system. Sure everyone talks about the turn around but there is no data to support it - it's the silent death of global growth off the back of a Chinese economy which is buckling under the weight of debt.
Throw in the spread of Coronavirus with all its health and economic impacts and you have set the scene for a political conflagration of truly epic proportions. With trust at all times low and declining fast how will governmental systems survive this perfect storm?
The longer that elites fight against meaningful change the more extreme the political reaction will be when it comes. You can have moderate change now or revolution later. For a lot of people the idea of pitchforks and bonfires is quite attractive. Political systems that are able to break elite capture and change will survive, others will be swept away under the avalanche of popular rage. Governments will fall and political systems will die under the political wave that is building.
Ironically my own country which was ground zero for this political explosion is slowly threading its way through its aftermath. We don’t really like sudden political change preferring evolution to revolution and so it shocked us as much as the rest of the world when we did vote to leave the EU. The last 3.5 year have been traumatic for the whole of society and we are not at the end yet.
But it has been vital for the country. It has re-engaged many who had been lost to the democratic process because they had given up hope of any real change and woken our elites up to what will happen if that change doesn’t come for millions. No one can be under any illusion over what the next explosion will be like - back to those pitchforks and bonfires again. Over to you elites but we are watching you.
For all the doom and gloom I hope that the UK makes it through and delivers meaningful economic and political change. The country could be a template for other countries as they undergo their own crisis. It would be deeply ironic that after all the insults layered on these islands that people would look to us for ideas. We have broad shoulders and a quick sense of humour so I am sure we would find it quite amusing.
The reason we got there was because of an ideology going back 30 years or more. But in short it was the belief that money and trade should be let rip because it always leads to the best outcomes. This historically has been proven wrong again and again but people can be remarkably stupid.
Money will always flow to the place where it can get the best return and with free trade this meant that money flowed from the 90s onwards into southeast Asia where wages were cheap and people were plentiful. No one cared what the impact on the West's own population would be - greed and ideology will do that for you.
In this same period you began to see the emergence of an international elite who existed both in national and the new transnational institutions like the EU. People who felt that the world would be better if it ran the way they wanted it to be and for a while it did. But when you shaft enough people you will get a response.
This was the period that saw the large scale de-industrialisation of the West as companies upsticked and moved their factories to southeast Asia - I mean why wouldn’t you. You could pay the staff there $10 a day vs £10 an hour in the West and then ship the goods back as tariffs were so low to be irrelevant when compared to the wage arbitrage.
So what if whole communities were gutted and an entire section of our societies were dumped as being no longer important. They didn’t vote and they were irrelevant to this brave new world where the future was global, house prices only went up and no one needed to make anything because the middle class had their cheap trinkets from abroad. So fuck the social contract and fuck the working class.
Of course a few people did ask how house prices could keep going up - at some point they always become too expensive to buy. Others asked an even more basic question “How could the West keep consuming when it no longer built anything - it is borrowing to consume?”. No one wanted to listen - hush - don’t disturb the party. But this wonderous new world and the new institutions that governed it inevitably hit the wall in the 2008 crisis.
Suddenly the world started melting down - yes house prices did go down - no banks really had lent too much money and yes the financial system was too opaque, interwoven and fragile to survive and “Oh by the way the party is over” was the story from the elites. So the poor got kicked out of their houses and everyone got austerity - it felt sort of right for many people. Like a religious person doing penance to atone for their past sins - people kind of accepted it.
But what they could not accept were the banks and corporations being bailed out and no one going to jail. Suddenly it was socialism for the rich but capitalism for the poor. It spawned the Tea party in the US but more than that it wounded the idea of fairness in the West and forever damaged trust in our elites and institutions - they’ve never recovered.
It might not have mattered had the “recovery” had been strong and fully formed. But governed by elite capture and out of date ideologies for many there has been no recovery. How can there be when none of the underlying issues that drove the crisis have been resolved. The West still doesn’t produce enough, the East doesn’t consume enough and too much money is going to the rich. Sure people have jobs but most are poorer than ever and they have had their public services eviscerated.
If you are rich or own assets though the party has continued. Bull stock markets, surging house prices - the little people might have suffered but you know what “Let them eat cake”. Alongside this elites have paraded around the world telling everyone else what to do and think whilst doing the exact opposite. “The normal rules don’t apply to us they are for the little people” is the silent whisper.
The worst are the transnational elites - people who allegedly represent their countries or other institutions but who have a remarkable ability to turn up in a new job that pays even more than the last regardless of their epic failures. A shameless frenzied feasting on the public purse by an epic list of losers and fraudsters whose appointment the public are never asked about. Their loud squeals heard any time someone attempts to push them away from the trough.
Supporting and abetting this has been a captured media class who have rarely questioned the underlying structures of the world. But then why would they, they are mostly the same. Sure they don’t fly around the world in private jets but many have done well off the system and fight to sustain it. Radical change - oh no we couldn’t possibly do that.
Same people, same thoughts, same education - everything. A borderless liberal class made up of the rich, over-educated academics, journalists, politicians, business class and media luvvies - they mostly huddle together in the global cities like London, Paris and New York or some of the trendy rural retreats handily located nearby. All with sky high property values to keep the plebs away. You wouldn’t want to interact with what you step in.
Their efforts to introduce plurality in public life is always the same - lets have some different coloured faces because that is true diversity. How about we have some people from different social classes and educational backgrounds - you know who might have a different view of things. Naw couldn’t do that they might speak some home truths.
It’s hardly a shock that with all this the public is reacting in country after country. Brexit - Trump "just a cry of nationalism by the normal racists" was heard from the liberal elite in and out of both countries - all backed up by the normal crowd of media and political hucksters. Just an aberration it will go away - lalalalalala - fingers in your ears time.
Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Greece - the list goes on. Country after country popular rage is swelling up. No trend here because people don’t want to see it. If they did they might need to actually engage with the people and their demands.
No instead it’s always the same “You mean they aren’t changing their minds - lets call them stupid ignorant xenophobic rascists”. Sure - that will work because after all this people are going to respond to insults. But then the liberal elite which is doing the screaming can’t help themselves because it is what they actually think. 25 years of a broken social contract and their contempt for much of their own fellow citizens just won’t be silenced.
But you know that works for me, I get to watch with growing delight at their discomfort and this is only just starting. Anyone who thinks that “populism” that wondrous catch all term for those the elites don’t like is peaking is deluded. In many countries the demand to be heard and for change is only just starting. Grab some popcorn there are plenty of elections inbound and any of them could generate new shocks.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in European Union where the treaties create a democratic straight jacket. Want to control migration - nope, want to borrow to invest - nope, want to change your own laws - nope. Nowhere else are elites sticking their fingers in their ears more firmly. They won’t contenance change, hell they won’t even contenance they have a problem. Instead full steam ahead let's talk about more EU - like red rag to a public whose demanding true change.
It wouldn’t be so serious but what little economic recovery we have had since 2008 has been dying for the last 18 months, strangled silently via the Eurodollar system. Sure everyone talks about the turn around but there is no data to support it - it's the silent death of global growth off the back of a Chinese economy which is buckling under the weight of debt.
Throw in the spread of Coronavirus with all its health and economic impacts and you have set the scene for a political conflagration of truly epic proportions. With trust at all times low and declining fast how will governmental systems survive this perfect storm?
The longer that elites fight against meaningful change the more extreme the political reaction will be when it comes. You can have moderate change now or revolution later. For a lot of people the idea of pitchforks and bonfires is quite attractive. Political systems that are able to break elite capture and change will survive, others will be swept away under the avalanche of popular rage. Governments will fall and political systems will die under the political wave that is building.
Ironically my own country which was ground zero for this political explosion is slowly threading its way through its aftermath. We don’t really like sudden political change preferring evolution to revolution and so it shocked us as much as the rest of the world when we did vote to leave the EU. The last 3.5 year have been traumatic for the whole of society and we are not at the end yet.
But it has been vital for the country. It has re-engaged many who had been lost to the democratic process because they had given up hope of any real change and woken our elites up to what will happen if that change doesn’t come for millions. No one can be under any illusion over what the next explosion will be like - back to those pitchforks and bonfires again. Over to you elites but we are watching you.
For all the doom and gloom I hope that the UK makes it through and delivers meaningful economic and political change. The country could be a template for other countries as they undergo their own crisis. It would be deeply ironic that after all the insults layered on these islands that people would look to us for ideas. We have broad shoulders and a quick sense of humour so I am sure we would find it quite amusing.
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